Covid 19 Update: 04/12 (Credit Greg Starling)

Greg Starling produced an excellent report on Facebook and Google Docs which you should read.
Original post below:

Quick #Covid19 update. The short version is things are looking really good. The models are continuing to over-estimate impact – in most cases, the over-estimate is still fairly significant. It’s appearing more and more that density was severely overemphasized. If you look at the northeast in general and very dense cities specifically, the models are really close. If you look at less dense states, the numbers continue to not be close.

A few graphs tonight.

If you look at both daily new cases and daily death totals, there is a definitive bell shape starting to take place. Not that it can’t tick back up the other way, but there is now beginning to be a real trend that is looking like we may have crested the hill and are heading down the backside.

In New York, net new hospitalizations will likely go negative in the next couple of days.



In Oklahoma, the projected peak is still 10 days away, but my guess is those projections are wrong. I’m not nearly as smart as these people modeling the data, but the data doesn’t support the model at this point. Right now, Oklahoma is so small that the data is noisy. That’s to say, when you have such a small number, very small changes can swing day-to-day. I’m trying to remove the noise and look for signal in two ways. 1: Ignore testing completely. It’s too dependant on the availability of tests and not a good signal. 2. Look at hospital data in terms of new admissions over the course of a week instead of daily. 3. Look at hospital data as a rolling 5-day moving average to try and normalize swings.

If you look at that data, it appears as though in Oklahoma, we have peaked and are moving down the back of the hill with the rest of the US. I’m not saying we have, and I’m definitely not nearly as good as the scientists who do this for a living, but the data sure looks like the worst may be behind us.

This means it’s about to be time to discuss the ethics of reopening society. The morals of life vs. quality of life will be something that will be really interesting to follow over the next few days.

As always, the full data is here:


Original post by Greg Starling