Updated numbers and trends for the 24 hour period of 03/23
Comments:Us Saturation Date: April 24.
5 days ago, Italy’s confirmed infection rate was at 15%. Every day since, the growth rate has declined with today’s numbers growing by only 7%.
The US confirmed infections continue to grow at a staggering rate of 35%. If the current trends continue, by Thursday, the US will have over 100,000 infections and will rank #1 in confirmed infection totals worldwide. Deaths may also rise well in excess of 1200.
Our 03/21 report (2 days ago) showed New York City proper with 8115 confirmed infections and 60 deaths. As of 03/23, the number has risen to 13,119 and 125 deaths. This represents 62% growth in infections and 108% growth in deaths. Areas near New York City also represent another 7500+ infections.
Today, we’ll leave you with one chart. You can see how US infections are ripe to grow from now until US Saturation. As long as the confirmed infections grow at >30%, this chart will be fairly accurate on infection totals. Death totals are projected using multiple methods to show you an idea of possible deaths. Note: This chart does not take into account for the 7-11 day lag between infection onset and death.
This will conclude today’s report. If you have any questions or comments, please email me at joe @ primoweb.com or find me on facebook at Facebook.com/primoweb.
An archive of all our previous reports can be found HERE
Sources: Johns Hopkins, CDC, European CDC, and for the spotlight, The Oklahoma Department of Health. Other sources noted when used.
Terminology: “Infections” mean confirmed CONVID-19 infections. “Deaths” are deaths confirmed by CONVID-19 or complications related to the disease. “US Saturation Date” is a forward projection of the US infection rate, referring to the date in which every person in the US would have the virus, if infection rates remain the same as today. All dates refer to dates deaths or infections were reported, which may not necessarily be the date of death or infectio